Aug 04, 2024

I recently came across some concerning trends in the U.S. job market. It seems that the share of workers quitting their jobs for better opportunities has dropped to the lowest level since January 2018. Additionally, the growth rate in private sector wages and salaries has slowed, and the unemployment rate has increased by 0.2 percentage points in July 2024. These indicators point to a potential slowdown in the post-pandemic recovery, with less job turnover and wage growth.

Upon further analysis, it appears that the situation may be more stable than initially thought. The increase in joblessness is mainly seen in categories that are not fully representative of the overall conditions. Despite the recent trends, annualized wage growth is still higher than pre-pandemic levels by about 1.5 percentage points. The question now is whether these conditions will persist given the current policy setting.

In summary, the data paints a worrying picture of the U.S. job market, with a slowdown in job turnover, employment growth, and wage increases. While the recent trends suggest a potential slowdown in the post-pandemic recovery, there are still underlying conditions that indicate some stability.

Stay Well!