Apr 10, 2026

Email 1 Summary:

Deutsche Bank predicts a robust earnings season with first-quarter earnings growth projected at 19%, surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of 16.2%, driven by favorable macro conditions, cyclical growth, and a weak dollar. Ten out of eleven sectors are expected to show positive growth, particularly in megacap growth and technology, as well as financials and industrials. Despite bearish investor sentiment and underweight positioning in key sectors like financials and tech, earnings growth is anticipated to challenge the negative market outlook. Energy earnings might see modest gains due to oil prices, and after the earnings season kickoff by Goldman Sachs, market participants remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions.

Email 2 Summary:

Kalshi, a prediction market platform, took $13 billion in bets last month mainly on sports and is valued around $22 billion. Its founders emphasize regulatory compliance with the CFTC and effective monitoring against insider trading, although no insider trading cases have been proven yet. Kalshi faces legal ambiguities with state versus federal regulation and is actively engaged in court battles. Separately, Seven & i Holdings delays its North American 7-Eleven IPO to 2027 due to macroeconomic headwinds including higher gas prices and inflation. Recent venture capital funding deals highlight sizable capital inflows into tech startups in RISC-V processors, applied data solutions, quantum computing, and AI. Various M&A activities and fundraising rounds underscore ongoing deal-making in diverse sectors.

Email 3 Summary:

A noted anomaly shows stocks frequently increase overnight while trending down during trading hours, with unclear causes. Attempts to profit from this pattern via ETFs have failed, but a new fund, Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF (NGHT), aims to capitalize on Bitcoin’s overnight gains, which vastly outperform daytime returns. The newsletter also discusses the US legal landscape where lawsuits driven by plaintiffs’ lawyers establish regulations via class-action suits and highlights recent restrictions by Meta on legal-focused ads recruiting plaintiffs. Insider trading laws and their complexities are explored through a recent Paramount executive dispute involving alleged nonpublic information disclosure. The piece closes with discussions on stock market concentration and index funds’ regulatory constraints, Bill Ackman’s plans for a contrarian investment fund, and the debate around the true identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

Stay Well!