Mar 28, 2026

Subject: Why oil-price surge may not trigger the inflationary spike investors fear

Sender: reports@marketwatchmail.comD

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Summary:

Investors fear that surging oil prices will cause inflation spikes and economic damage, pushing markets down and treasury yields higher due to concerns about Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. However, Jim Paulsen argues in his Paulsen Perspectives blog that two disinflationary forces may moderate this impact:

1. The recent oil price increase is relatively small compared to eight previous notable U.S. inflationary oil-price cycles over the last 40 years.
2. The current U.S. real economic growth is far weaker (2.4% over the last year) than during past cycles when growth ranged from 3% to 6%, making inflationary effects less intense.

Furthermore, productivity-driven economic growth is highlighted as a disinflationary force. While the conflict with Iran may prolong and drive further oil price increases, these disinflationary trends suggest the inflation impact may be less severe than feared.

Market overview:

– U.S. stock-index futures lower following escalation in attacks against Iran.

– Benchmark Treasury yields rising; dollar index up; gold trading near $4,420 an ounce.

Key asset performance data:

– S&P 500 down 1.96% over 5 days, -5.38% YTD.

– Nasdaq Composite down 3.09% over 5 days, -7.89% YTD.

– Gold down 1.45% over 5 days, up 41.99% over 1 year.

– Oil (WTI) price at ~$96, down 2.10% over 5 days but up 67.27% YTD.

Additional notes:

– Oil prices remain near recent highs with WTI crude above $100/barrel.

– U.S. Senate passed legislation funding Department of Homeland Security, ending pay standoffs affecting airport security workers.

– Upcoming U.S. economic data includes final consumer sentiment for March and Federal Reserve officials’ comments.

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: Sacks switches

Sender: dan@axios.comD

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Summary:

– David Sacks, former AI czar, has ended his term but remains influential, co-chairing the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), extending his influence beyond AI to broader technology topics. No replacement AI czar is planned, and his “let ‘em cook” approach remains. Speculation that his exit was due to comments on the Iran war doesn’t align with his elevated PCAST role.

• Data centers and high electricity costs are a political issue with bipartisan consensus emerging on AI companies helping offset energy costs, but disagreements remain about moratoriums on data center expansions. Energy sector M&A is more affected by moratorium proposals than by Iran war or oil prices.

• Senator Mark Warner called for AI industry help in managing AI-driven job losses and funding related transitions, indicating Congress’s need for industry partnership.

• Anthropic won a preliminary injunction against the Trump administration’s designation as a supply chain risk, a decision that may be appealed and is not final. This lifts some uncertainty for the AI company reportedly planning an October IPO.

Recent Venture Capital and Private Equity deals highlighted include:

– Aetherflux raising $250-300M at $2B valuation.

– Xona raised $170M Series C.

– Various other startups raised millions in funding across AI, financial services, and healthcare sectors.

– Boardroom developments include Brown-Forman in acquisition talks with Pernod Ricard, causing stock price movement.

Subject: Money Stuff: The Podcast: Also Stickys

Sender: noreply@news.bloomberg.comD

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Summary:

This week’s episode of Money Stuff podcast discusses a variety of topics including conferences, baby names, private credit redemption requests, liquidity confusion, private credit inflows, Larry Fink’s annual letter, AI impacts on jobs and fund managers, shorting the consumer economy, ownership strategies, the upcoming SpaceX IPO and Elon Musk’s reactions to 420.

Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever podcasts are available. Feedback welcomed at moneypod@bloomberg.net.

Subject: 💥 Recession Odds Rise to 49%, Interest Rates May Rise Again, and This Oil Shock May Last for Years

Sender: fluentinfinance+finance@substack.comD

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Summary:

This detailed analysis covers how geopolitical turmoil (Iran war) caused a global oil supply shock surpassing $100/barrel prices, spiking inflation, and creating economic risks:

• Recession odds nearing 50% due to inflation, weak economy, and private credit stresses mirroring 2008 warnings.
• Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passage, has created significant supply shortages, with multiple countries affected across Asia implementing emergency measures.
• Oil prices have risen sharply, jet fuel doubling in Asia and Europe, causing soaring costs in airlines and transportation sectors.
• Monetary policy unable to fix supply-side shocks; Federal Reserve admits uncertainty and may need to hike rates, with odds rising for hikes this year.
• Private credit markets face stress with two large funds restricting withdrawals; risk signals similar to pre-2008 period due to opaque loan standards and linked financial institutions.
• Markets are fearful with cash hoarding by fund managers, collapsing investor sentiment, “Extreme Fear” readings on the Fear & Greed Index (at 18), and technical warnings in financial sectors.
• Positive signals include resilience of some stocks and Bitcoin’s short-term uptrend, while small-cap stocks, energy, LNG producers, and defense contractors are recommended.
• Housing market dynamics analyzed showing record high gap between sellers and buyers leading to price pressure; affordability remains a significant barrier for new buyers.
• Recent insider stock purchases highlight confidence in precious metals and risk management strategies
• Trader activity includes large bullish options bets on Jefferies Financial Group possibly linked to takeover rumors.
• Recommendations stress strategic rotation into sectors benefiting from the current environment (energy, cybersecurity, defense), caution on airlines and long-duration bonds, liquidity review in private credit holdings, and keeping cash ready to capitalize on market dips.
• Long-term outlook remains positive with advised patience and strategic action during current market fear and volatility.

Overall, the newsletter encourages preparedness, awareness of risk, and proactive investing to navigate the complex stagflationary and geopolitical environment.

Stay Well!