Mar 10, 2026

Email 1:

Subject: Iran Fallout Rocks Southeast Asia Amid Middle East Conflicts

Content:

– The escalating Middle East conflict, particularly following Iran strikes, has significant geopolitical and geoeconomic impact on Southeast Asia.

– ASEAN countries are facing challenges in reaching consensus statements due to diverging perspectives on the crisis.

– Regional developments include:

* Multinational military exercises like Cobra Gold spotlighting security collaborations.

* Expansion in technological power discussions.

* A new disinformation partnership.

* China’s quiet infrastructure inroads and advancing trade disputes.

– Industry issues include pushback on rare earths and concerns over rising port risks and geoeconomic diversification.

– The sinking of an Iranian vessel near Sri Lanka highlights Indo-Pacific implications of the Middle East tensions.

– Key points: ASEAN struggles to release joint positions, cross-regional geopolitical fallouts, and new regional policy steps on citizen security and energy supplies.

– Online subscription available for detailed analysis including geopolitical forecasts and industry indicators.

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Email 2:

Subject: Need to Know: Market Melt-Up Chances Have Evaporated Amid Middle East Conflict

Content:

– Spiking oil prices amid ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran have dampened prospects for market “melt-up.”

– Energy supply constraints elevate oil prices to multi-year highs, increasing inflation pressures and risking stagflation.

– Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research warns of a possible 1970s-style stagflation and double recession scenario if Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

– Increased forecast of a U.S. recession in 2026, with the odds rising from 22% to 34% recently.

– Predicted market corrections include a 10-15% drop in the S&P 500, with a risk of a bear market (20% decline).

– Bonds may not provide safety due to rising Treasury yields linked to soaring oil prices.

– Market indexes show declines; oil surges to nearly $120/barrel before retreating on coordinated stockpile release talks.

– Other impacts include rising futures prices for wheat, soybeans, and corn due to concerns over agricultural fertilizer supplies.

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Email 3:

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: The Circularitys in Private Credit Amid AI and DOJ Settlements

Content:

– AI’s rapid development impacts private credit financing of data centers due to frozen private credit lending.

– The “circular” issue is that private credit funds financed data centers that AI now devalues.

– Major private lenders like Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone, and others participate in data center deals.

– Department of Justice settled their lawsuit with Live Nation over alleged Ticketmaster monopoly abuse, likely avoiding Ticketmaster divestiture.

– Venture capital updates include:

* Nscale’s $2B Series B at $14.6B valuation.

* AI startups raising significant funding rounds.

– Private equity and M&A highlight deals and acquisitions in health care, water treatment, packaging, and energy sectors.

– IPO plans include Cerebras, an AI chipmaker, expected to lead with Morgan Stanley.

– Market narrative also spotlights AI dealmaking concerns, private credit challenges, and major corporate acquisitions.

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Email 4:

Subject: Money Stuff: BlackRock Guards the Gates of Private Credit Liquidity

Content:

– Private credit funds raise capital from long-term locked institutional investors, providing a safe and high-return lending model.

– Recent push to sell private credit to retail investors presents risks due to retail investors’ willingness to accept illiquidity.

– Publicly-traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) and private semi-liquid BDCs offer retail investors liquidity options, but with strict withdrawal limits (5% quarterly).

– Rising redemption requests are stressing private credit funds; BlackRock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund recently capped withdrawals at 5%.

– This is the first major gating since market jitters began, reinforcing the importance of withdrawal limits for fund stability.

– Hedge on private credit’s marketing model is now clear: premium returns require acceptance of illiquidity.

– The article also covers debates over ESG investing legality in 401(k) plans with competing lawsuits challenging both inclusion and exclusion of ESG funds.

– AI consulting deals with major firms (McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte) promote AI integration in business operations.

– The newsletter also references “financial nihilism” among younger investors turning to prediction markets.

– Detailed explanation of private credit fund structures and recent industry developments available in full text.

Stay Well!