Jan 15, 2026

1. Subject: Joseph Politano and Andrew Lokenauth posted new notes

   Content Summary:

2. Joseph Politano highlights sluggish US labor market flows in November 2025, including data showing 9 states plus DC lost jobs since 2024, with Missouri showing the fastest growth.
3. Andrew Lokenauth discusses inflation by example, noting a $100,000 salary in 1990 would be more than $250,000 in real terms now.
4. Followers can read more detailed notes via the Substack app.

1. Subject: APAC insurers expect higher returns | Vietnam mandates full senior payouts | Non-life supported by regulatory reforms

   Content Summary:

2. Seven in 10 Asia-Pacific insurance companies expect private equity returns to increase.
3. Vietnam mandates 100% reimbursement payouts for near-poor and seniors aged 75 and older.
4. Thailand is working on regulatory reforms to strengthen underwriting and resilience in non-life insurance against catastrophe exposure.
5. The Asia-Pacific power grid market is projected to reach $19 billion by 2029, driven by digitalization.
6. India’s non-fossil fuel energy capacity hit a record 266.78 GW in 2025, led by solar and wind power.
7. 71% of Asia’s youth prioritize financial planning, citing financial security as a top concern.
8. Commentary and co-written articles are available on topics like AI security and digital transformation.

1. Subject: Need to Know: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says investors shouldn’t fight the White House

   Content Summary:

2. Tom Lee advises investors to follow signals from Washington when selecting stocks in 2026.
3. The White House is effectively picking winners and losers in sectors such as credit card companies, the Federal Reserve, and mortgage investors.
4. Recent actions by President Trump, including calls for credit card interest rate caps and efforts to reduce mortgage rates, have impacted banks and related stocks.
5. Lee identifies energy, basic materials, major tech stocks, bitcoin, Ethereum, industrials, and financials (including banks) as favored sectors for the year ahead.
6. Market updates include mixed earnings results among major banks and optimism around home builder stocks.
7. Additional market data on key asset performance is provided.

1. Subject: Sorry, ARR is alive and well 🫢

   Content Summary:

2. Ben explains Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) remains a vital metric despite evolving SaaS business models.
3. ARR calculation has become complex due to hybrid subscription, consumption, and usage-based pricing models.
4. Over 200 public tech companies’ disclosure practices were analyzed to clarify ARR definitions for board and investor communications.
5. ARR includes recurring revenues like subscriptions, usage, consumption, and some recurring services; it excludes one-time fees.
6. Ben shares an ARR Disclosure Checklist and promotes training programs and apps to improve SaaS metrics accuracy.
7. Upcoming SaaS events on AI readiness, expense control, and ARR definitions are announced.
8. Sponsored insights about AI-powered finance tools (Maxio MCP) and guides for CFOs to manage emerging tech investments are included.

1. Subject: Axios Pro Rata: Luxury losers

   Content Summary:

2. Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy just 13 months after acquiring Neiman Marcus for $2.65 billion.
3. Saks secured $1.75 billion in debtor-in-possession financing and replaced its CEO amid turnaround struggles.
4. Numerous venture capital and private equity fundraising and acquisitions in AI chipmakers, biotech, cybersecurity, and cloud storage are reported.
5. Notable fundraises include Cerebras Systems ($1B raise at $22B valuation), Etched ($500M at $5B valuation), Mirador Therapeutics ($250M Series B), and more.
6. M&A deals, including Proveris acquisition and investments in healthcare, defense, and SaaS companies, are detailed.
7. Public offering plans include Bitpanda (crypto exchange), Liftoff Mobile (mobile ad software), Quantinuum (quantum computing).
8. Market updates also cover management promotions in private equity and venture capital firms.

1. Subject: Thought bubble: JPM’s AI buzz

   Content Summary:

2. At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, AI’s potential to revolutionize biotech drug development is a major topic.
3. No fully AI-developed or FDA-approved drugs yet; approval for the first AI-enabled drug is anticipated in 2-3 years.
4. Generate:Biomedicines is advancing two Phase 3 trials for AI-engineered severe asthma treatment.
5. Pharma companies focus on building AI capabilities in-house or partnering with AI platforms to harness shared algorithm advancements.
6. AI currently aids biomarker discovery and disease target identification, boosting biotech VC interest.
7. The ultimate goal includes AI simulating human trials, though that is not imminent.

1. Subject: Money Stuff: Wall Street Wants Predictors

   Content Summary:

2. Market-making involves quick buying and selling to capture small spreads, often requiring accurate views on fundamental value to avoid losses from better-informed traders.
3. Prediction markets are gaining interest from proprietary trading firms as they involve many uninformed gamblers, offering arbitrage opportunities and potential profits.
4. Large firms are starting to trade and build quantitative models to predict event outcomes more accurately in prediction markets, increasing liquidity and efficiency.
5. Unlike cryptocurrencies, prediction markets resolve quickly based on real events, reducing indefinite valuation disputes.
6. Political and economic discussions around stock buybacks and profitability suggest banning buybacks might impact company pricing and capital allocation behavior.
7. The memo discusses the rise of memecoins, celebrity-endorsed cryptocurrencies, and the cultural appeal of “fame exit scams,” exemplified by figures like Eric Adams and Donald Trump.
8. Recent news includes Saks’ bankruptcy, commodity rallies, Netflix’s potential Warner Bros. bid amendment, AI recruitment updates, and Matthew McConaughey’s trademarking to combat AI misuse.

Stay Well!