Mar 25, 2026

Email 1 Summary:

A Wall Street firm, Citi, fears oil prices could reach $200 per barrel due to ongoing supply disruptions related to Middle East conflicts, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. The interruption in oil supply is larger than past shocks, comparable to the oil crises of the 1970s. Citi anticipates Brent crude could hit $120 per barrel soon, with a possibility of hitting $200 if the disruptions persist through June. Despite soaring oil costs contributing to inflation, risky assets like the S&P 500 have remained relatively resilient. Citi suggests it’s not too late for investors to hedge against inflation with commodities, especially gold, and highlights strategic buying signals depending on how the conflict unfolds. Market data shows mixed performances with oil up over 30% month-to-date, gold weak but potentially poised for gains, and equities sees some volatility.

Email 2 Summary:

Ron Shaich, Panera founder and Cava chairman, is taking an activist-like investment approach with BJ’s Restaurants, aiming to replicate a turnaround similar to what was done at Chili’s. The BJ’s CEO, Lyle Tick, has delivered sequential same-store sales growth since last June. Shaich emphasizes reducing operational friction, including incentivizing general managers, as key to success. Estée Lauder is in talks to acquire Spanish beauty firm Puig, potentially creating a $40 billion company to compete with L’Oreal. The newsletter also covers numerous venture capital, private equity deals, public offerings, acquisitions, and fundraisings highlighting ongoing dynamic M&A, IPO, and fundraising activity in technology, biotech, insurance, and consumer sectors. UK borrowing costs have risen sharply due to inflation and the Iran war fallout.

Email 3 Summary:

Private credit funds often trade below their reported net asset values (NAV), reflecting concerns about liquidity and market prices; for example, public Business Development Companies (BDCs) trade at discounts from 8% to 50% below NAV. “Non-traded” or private BDCs do not trade publicly and limit redemptions, often paying out at NAV, causing a mismatch as many investors want to exit but can only sell a small portion quarterly. This liquidity mismatch creates a phenomenon where the true market value may be below reported NAV. Despite this, these funds are seeing both high redemption requests and inflows. Meanwhile, closed-end funds offering exposure to high-profile private companies like SpaceX are trading at large premiums due to demand and limited availability. Additionally, legal and regulatory battles are ongoing regarding federally regulated online sports betting markets, and insider trading on information about geopolitical events affecting oil markets is discussed, highlighting a recent $580 million trade shortly before a Trump announcement on Iran talks caused significant market movement.

Stay Well!