Mar 21, 2026

Email 1 Summary:

A forthcoming book co-authored by former chief economist Chad Bown and ex-policy advisor Soumaya Keynes, titled “How to Win a Trade War,” outlines critical geoeconomic strategies for countries, with a focus on Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific. The book emphasizes understanding the geopolitical battlefield and offers future scenarios and approaches to manage geoeconomic competition. It also presents key datapoints and potential policy considerations for navigating the evolving and more contested geoeconomic environment, especially amidst recent global and regional tensions such as the Middle East conflict. Access to the full analysis and implications sections is available through a paid subscription to ASEAN Wonk.

Email 2 Summary:

MarketWatch reports on signs indicating “peak uncertainty” in the stock market related to the Iran war and its geopolitical fallout. Despite a recent market sell-off—with declines in stocks, gold, and treasuries—research suggests markets tend to bottom about three weeks after major crises, and this period may be near. Recent developments such as damage to Middle East energy infrastructure have fueled uncertainty, with heightened market volatility indicated by simultaneous crashes in gold and equities. There is speculation that cooperation between China and the U.S. might act as a catalyst for market stabilization. Historical data from Deutsche Bank suggests the S&P 500 typically recovers fully about seven weeks post-shock. Key market indicators show declines in major indices and ongoing volatility.

Email 3 Summary:

Axios Pro Rata covers Jeff Bezos’s involvement in raising a $100 billion fund linked to Project Prometheus, focused on applying AI to optimize pre-production manufacturing processes rather than replacing assembly-line workers. Details about the fund’s structure, involvement of Bezos’s Blue Origin, or investments in Chinese manufacturers are unclear. The fund aims to acquire manufacturing companies and accelerate automation through AI, reminiscent of a private equity rollup strategy led by visionary leaders Bezos and Vik Bajaj. Additionally, Google’s life sciences company Verily raised $300 million in a round led by Series X Capital, focusing on precision medicine, marking Alphabet’s reduced control. The newsletter also features recent venture capital deals, private equity acquisitions, fundraising efforts, executive moves, and market insights, including the impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity prices like copper.

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