Mar 20, 2026

Subject: Epic Fury has already canceled out tax refunds – even if the Iran war ended today

Sender: reports@marketwatchmail.com

Summary:

Recent economic analyses from Stanford economists indicate that the escalating Iran conflict has negated any financial benefit American taxpayers might have expected from increased tax refunds under last year’s Big Beautiful Bill tax legislation. Despite IRS data showing an average 11% increase in refunds through February 27, rising gasoline prices due to the war’s impact on oil supply could potentially add around $740 in fuel costs per household in 2026, offsetting these gains. The economists used Goldman Sachs forecasts that assume a Strait of Hormuz closure lasting around three weeks. Given the ongoing conflict surpassing 20 days, the war’s effects on energy prices may persist longer, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Market responses include a slight dip in U.S. stock futures and a rise in Treasury yields. The article also highlights notable corporate earnings and ongoing geopolitical events influencing market dynamics.

Key Points:

– Average tax refunds increased by $360 per filer compared to 2025; forecasts suggest even larger increases.

– War-induced gasoline price increases likely to add approximately $740 per household in annual costs.

– Energy price shocks might challenge Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook.

– Market indicators show minor downturns in equities and rising bond yields amid volatile energy markets.

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: AI builds AIs

Sender: dan@axios.com

Summary:

The first quarter of 2026 has witnessed a robust increase in global dealmaking, particularly in the U.S., where volume jumped 80% year-over-year driven largely by mega-deals and private equity activity. However, a recent slowdown in March deal volume and concerns such as the escalating Iran war, private credit risks, and the Federal Reserve’s undecided rate policies have tempered dealmaker sentiment. The IPO market notably remains subdued, signaling investor caution. A highlight is the emergence of Autoscience, a Silicon Valley startup that uses AI to autonomously build other AI models, securing $14 million in seed funding. Numerous other startups across AI, healthcare, cybersecurity, and sustainable technology sectors have reported significant funding rounds. Uber announced a $1.25 billion investment in EV maker Rivian to support plans for robotaxi deployments starting in 2028.

Key Points:

– Deal volume up substantially, but recent slowdown and geopolitical risks add uncertainty.

– Autoscience’s AI-driven AI development platform signifies potential future labor disruption in AI engineering.

– Numerous startups raised significant capital in diverse sectors including AI, health, and clean energy.

– Uber invests heavily in Rivian as part of autonomous vehicle expansion plans.

Subject: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks

Sender: matthewcklein@substack.com

Summary:

Matthew C. Klein critiques the Federal Reserve’s assessment of inflation risks in the context of recent economic data preceding the Iran conflict. He argues that inflation was worsening broadly across goods and services prior to the war, weakening the Fed’s narrative that current inflation primarily results from “one-time” tariff-related factors. Prices of consumer goods and manufacturing inputs have accelerated noticeably, with some sectors witnessing historically unprecedented price increases. Services inflation, comprising the largest segment of economic activity, also shows concerning trends that the Fed appears to underestimate. Klein suggests that ignoring these indicators and the added complexity of the geopolitical situation may prompt the Fed to miscalculate policy needs, advocating for renewed consideration of raising interest rates.

Key Points:

– Inflation was intensifying prior to the Iran war across a wide range of categories.

– Tariff-related explanations fail to fully account for rising prices, especially in manufacturing inputs.

– Services prices are rising significantly, underscoring ongoing inflationary pressures.

– The Fed’s optimistic belief in a swift return to target inflation rates is challenged by these data.

Subject: Money Stuff: The Podcast: Boaz Weinstein

Sender: noreply@news.bloomberg.com

Summary:

This week’s Money Stuff podcast features Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital Management discussing a range of financial topics. The conversation covers his experience with tenders for OBDC II and SREIT, liquidity challenges in semi-liquid funds, the concept of reflexivity in markets, and the appeal of permanent capital structures. Discussion also touches on private credit net asset values (NAVs), differences between public and private BDC valuations, brand value preservation, and market volatility. Additionally, lighter topics such as bowling are included. The episode was recorded prior to Blue Owl’s recommendation against Weinstein’s tender offer and is available in audio and video formats via common podcast platforms.

Key Points:

– In-depth discussion on fund liquidity, market dynamics, and investment strategies.

– Explores both technical finance and personal interests of a prominent asset manager.

– Available on major podcast platforms with accompanying video content.

– Provides insight into current challenges and opportunities in alternative investments.

Stay Well!