Mar 13, 2026

Here are summaries for the first 5 emails based on the provided text:

Subject: Money Stuff: Private Credit Gets Marked Downs

Summary:

The email discusses how private credit assets, like loans to software companies, are valued amid market fluctuations. It illustrates the conflict between mark-to-market valuations (which reflect current market rates, lowering asset values from $100 to about $98 due to rate increases) and hold-to-maturity valuations (which consider the loan worth the principal if no default occurs). Different financial entities mark these assets differently based on purpose: hedge funds and mutual funds mark to market to reflect liquidity needs and leverage; banks typically do not mark loans to market; private investors might ignore market marks altogether. The piece also notes that private credit firms are transitioning towards more frequent mark-to-market valuations due to redemption pressures, leverage, and performance fee structures. It highlights recent industry moves like Apollo Global Management increasing transparency with monthly NAV reports. The email also covers related topics like Kalshi’s call spread options versus binary contracts, legal warnings about relying on AI like ChatGPT for legal advice, and the use of financial market data as a source of randomness for cryptographic purposes. Finally, it touches on ongoing industry news like regulatory proposals, private equity investments, and market dynamics.

Subject: Joseph Politano and Andrew Lokenauth posted new notes

Summary:

This notification email reports new notes published by Joseph Politano and Andrew Lokenauth on Substack. Highlights include Taiwan’s GDP growing at a 23% annualized rate driven by exports, details about the Roth IRA contribution limits for 2026, and recent U.S. jobs data showing non-farm payrolls decreasing by 92,000 with unemployment at 4.4%. The email provides links to read the full notes and engagement statistics.

Subject: Need to Know: Goldman just cut the U.S. economic outlook over the Iran wars

Summary:

This market update highlights Goldman Sachs lowering the U.S. economic growth outlook due to the Iran war. The key channel of impact is rising oil prices, which Goldman now forecasts to average $98 per barrel in March and April, up 40% from 2025 averages. Elevated oil prices are expected to increase inflation (PCE to 2.9% by year-end), reduce GDP growth slightly (forecast lowered by 0.3 points to 2.2%), and increase unemployment to about 4.6% by Q4. There’s a 25% recession risk over the next 12 months. The report also covers factors dampening economic impact, like less reliance on oil than in the 1970s and limited trade exposure through key chokepoints. Additionally, oil price effects on sectors like fertilizer and semiconductors are noted, with related stock market performance updates. The email includes commentary on geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, and recent market data.

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: War worries

Summary:

This business newsletter reviews the impact of the Iran war on Middle Eastern capital flows and global finance. Despite interruptions to shipping like oil and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds remain active global investors, with record venture capital investments. Firms have responded to threats by adopting remote work or relocating staff temporarily. Deal activity appears resilient so far, including private equity bids for companies like Papa John’s. The newsletter covers recent IPO disappointments such as PayPay’s low pricing, ongoing venture capital and private equity deal activity in various sectors, and funding rounds for AI, robotics, fintech, and other startups. It also reports on mergers and funding developments for infrastructure, industrial, and energy companies and personnel moves. Overall, while war introduces risk, Middle Eastern capital continues to play a critical role in global investment.

Subject: Money Stuff: Lever the Predictions

Summary:

This in-depth newsletter explains the mechanics of commodity futures markets using crude oil as the example. It emphasizes how leverage works through margin requirements, enabling traders to control large commodity exposures with smaller deposits. The author discusses the complexity and risks of futures margining and contrasts it with an idealized fully prepaid, capped contract concept, which resembles prediction markets like Kalshi. Prediction markets simplify credit risks by requiring upfront payment for binary contracts paying either $0 or $1. The email explores the expansion of Kalshi’s access to institutional investors via brokers, enhancing market plumbing. It also revisits private credit valuation challenges, highlighting redemption pressures on firms like Blue Owl Capital and NAV arbitrage concerns. The newsletter then discusses contentious prediction markets on volatile political events such as the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, legal disputes over payout rules, and the ethics of war betting. Finally, it reflects on how conflicts might serve as a “distraction” in private markets and includes anecdotes about investor decision-making signals and miscellaneous financial news.

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Stay Well!