Finance Knuggets
Mar 07, 2026
===Email 1===
Subject: Money Stuff: Be Liquid When Others Are Illiquids
Content Summary:
– The newsletter discusses the illiquidity premium, especially in private credit and non-traded BDCs (Business Development Companies).
– Individual investors demand liquidity and are pulling money from private credit funds like BCRED and Blue Owl Capital BDCs, causing these funds to limit redemptions.
– Professional investors may see this as a buying opportunity due to the widened illiquidity premium.
– Tender offers by Saba Capital Management and Cox Capital Partners at significant discounts to net asset value demonstrate a bet on illiquidity premiums.
– A similar issue is noted in the non-traded real estate investment trust Starwood Real Estate Income Trust (SREIT), facing liquidity constraints due to higher interest rates and investor redemptions.
– Retail stock investors tend to buy the dip in stock markets, but retail private credit investors are behaving inversely by demanding liquidity.
– There is a strong theme of dispersion in stock performances, driven by AI’s potential impact and geopolitical events, especially the Middle East conflict influencing market correlations.
– Bitcoin’s fungibility is discussed, noting that individual Bitcoins are traceable and sometimes discriminated, similar to how some banknotes (cash) can be traced or considered “bad” money.
– The crash of a military cargo plane in Bolivia that scattered millions in new banknotes led the authorities to void serial numbers and scramble to prevent circulating invalid cash, causing market and business disruptions.
– Additional market news snippets address private loan write-offs, layoffs at Morgan Stanley, trade refunds, and geopolitical supply crunches.
===Email 2===
Subject: Review: New World Order, Triangle of Power and Asia Futures
Content Summary:
– The email features a review of a new book by President Alexander Stubb titled “The Triangle of Power,” which addresses pathways for new world order power rebalancing.
– The book discusses implications for the Global South, Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia, and global geopolitics.
– It highlights recent geopolitical concerns, including the Middle East conflict and its impacts on international order.
– The book proposes frameworks for managing global competition, avoiding conflict, and fostering selective cooperation on major geoeconomic/geopolitical issues.
– Reflections include sensitive political anecdotes and calls for global engagement.
– The discussion further elaborates on key geopolitical scenarios affecting the region and the importance of policymakers’ strategies.
– To access full analysis and implications sections, readers are encouraged to subscribe to ASEAN Wonk.
===Email 3===
Subject: Need to Know: The Iran conflict is breaking this classic portfolio strategy, according to Morgan Stanley
Content Summary:
– Morgan Stanley analysts observe that the Iran conflict and resulting oil price surge are disrupting the traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio strategy.
– Normally, bonds and equities are negatively correlated; if stocks drop, bond prices rise, stabilizing returns.
– However, due to oil-driven inflation fears, both stock and bond prices can fall simultaneously, breaking the traditional negative correlation.
– This dynamic resembles the 2021-2023 period when inflation and growth concerns led to poor 60/40 portfolio performance.
– The note advises investors to consider the divergent correlation between short-duration and long-duration U.S. Treasuries with stocks.
– Oil prices are pushing up short-duration yields more, leading to a bear-flattening yield curve.
– Market data shows key indices with mixed performance amid rising geopolitical tensions.
– Upcoming economic reports and Fed comments are noted.
– The report highlights the difficulty of navigating markets when classic diversification benefits weaken due to geopolitical shocks.
===Email 4===
Subject: Axios Pro Rata: TikTok torts
Content Summary:
– Lawsuit challenges Trump’s executive orders that delayed TikTok’s ban in the U.S., potentially costing TikTok US ownership hundreds of billions.
– The suit alleges illegal executive actions and violations concerning ByteDance’s relationship with TikTok U.S.
– Plaintiffs include individual shareholders of Meta and Alphabet, alleging financial harm.
– Defendants are Trump and former Attorney General Pam Bondi.
– The case may lead to new deals or renegotiations regarding TikTok’s U.S. ownership.
– In venture capital news, Science Corp raised $230 million for a brain-computer interface implant aiming to restore vision.
– Other startup funding, private equity acquisitions, IPOs, and mergers are summarized, including notable transactions like MiniMed Group’s $560m IPO.
– Market jitters continue over banking sector valuations amid private loan write-offs.
– Axios offers media insights and invites reader engagement.
===Email 5===
Subject: Money Stuff: The Podcast: Perhaps a Ballrooms
Content Summary:
– The weekly Money Stuff podcast episode is released covering:
– A legendary lost Money Stuff podcast episode.
– Discussions on investment conferences.
– Industry topics: Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros., rights offerings, LBO risks, deal discipline, breakup fees.
– Private credit topics including BCRED, OBDC II tender offers and liquidity.
– Blackstone’s challenges around liquidity and asset quality.
– Credit Suisse toxic asset bonuses.
– Themes of short-term memory in markets and liquidity in companies like XOVR and SpaceX.
– The episode is available on Apple, Spotify, and other platforms.
– Listeners are encouraged to provide feedback via email.
Stay Well!
