Mar 03, 2026

Email 1:

Subject: Why the First Japan Pacific Defense Dialogue ASEAN Showing?

Content:

– This newsletter edition of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief covers Southeast Asia’s first participation in Japan’s Pacific Defense Dialogue.

– It assesses the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the dialogue.

– Discusses proliferating Iran attack fallout concerns and Kremlin diplomacy.

– Addresses evolving geopolitical/security trends including new pacts, semiconductor partnerships, AI law.

– Highlights Japan’s security engagement with ASEAN amid weaponization of peacetime/wartime blurring lines.

– Notes record regional defense cooperation, including India’s MILAN 2026 exercise participation by ASEAN states.

– Explores impacts and future datapoints to watch regarding Indo-Pacific security.

– Paid subscribers get full analysis, endnotes, and additional insights.

Email 2:

Subject: Need to Know: What oil prices must do before they trigger a bear market, according to Mike Wilson

Content:

– Overview of oil price impact on equity markets amid Middle East conflict.

– Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson explains geopolitical shocks historically cause short-term volatility, not sustained downturn.

– Bear market triggered only if oil prices rise by 75-100% year-over-year late in economic cycle; currently oil price increase modest (~5% YoY).

– Stocks like energy and defense companies rally while travel and other sectors decline due to fuel cost concerns.

– Wilson maintains bullish outlook on US equities with S&P 500 target 7,800 by year-end.

– Defensive sector pick: healthcare.

– Market data: S&P 500 slightly down; oil price around $72/barrel with volatility from conflict-related supply risks.

– Additional coverage of earnings, economic data, and market reactions included.

Email 3:

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: Department of Whoas

Content:

– Anthropic’s AI Pentagon contract dispute leads to Defense Dept designating it a supply chain risk, halting military deals.

– CEO Dario Amodei’s public statements on autonomous weapons and surveillance contributed to tensions.

– OpenAI signed Pentagon deal that Anthropic lost.

– Venture capital in AI and defense faces growing risks amid political pushback.

– Summary of recent major M&A and funding deals including AES Corp acquisition, startup fundraisings, and IPO filings.

– Highlights ongoing media industry shifts with new trends in AI and platform policies.

– Warner Bros Discovery acquisition by Paramount faces regulatory doubts; Netflix paid a termination fee.

– Venture capital activity, private equity deals, and personnel changes in finance sector reported.

Email 4:

Subject: Money Stuff: War Markets Have Some Bugs

Content:

– Examines prediction markets related to war and assassination, focusing on Kalshi’s contracts about “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader.”

– Contract payouts exclude deaths, leading to controversy and $2.2 million reimbursement after Khamenei died by bombing.

– Notes complexities and legal restrictions (CFTC Rule 40.11) on betting markets involving war and violence.

– Discusses emergence of binary options markets by Nasdaq and Cboe, and their potential to increase stock market volatility.

– Reports on activist proxy fights in digital asset treasury companies seeking to unlock value versus management holding crypto.

– Commentary on how investors interpret executive tone/body language, supported by research indicating AI can derive insights.

– Highlights VC fraud tendencies and a memoir of Lloyd Blankfein, noting his candid view on 2008 financial crisis.

– Brief roundup of recent market news and events related to geopolitical risk, AI impacts, and corporate deals.

Stay Well!