Finance Knuggets
Jan 22, 2026
Summary of 5 Emails:
Email 1:
Subject: The 25 Fastest-Growing Jobs, AI’s Next Phase, and Small Caps Crushing Large Caps
Sender: fluentinfinance+finance@substack.com
Contents:
– Small-cap stocks have outperformed large caps for 11 consecutive days, the longest streak in 36 years, trading at a 20% discount to large caps (lowest in 50 years).
– Alphabet (Google) recently reached $4 trillion market cap by landing a big AI deal with Apple. OpenAI faces challenges while Alphabet’s AI efficiency is praised.
– Job growth in the U.S. slowed significantly in 2025 with only 584,000 jobs created, mostly in healthcare, signaling a “hiring recession.”
– Gold prices surged over 60% in 2025.
– Trade tensions escalated with tariffs on Europe and possible retaliatory tariffs.
– The labor market is weakening, AI is reshaping jobs, and investors are balancing their portfolios with small caps, AI efficiency plays, and hedges like gold.
– The newsletter advises diversification: one-third large caps, one-third emerging (small caps, international), one-third protective assets (bonds, gold, cash).
– Insider trades include Senator Markwayne Mullin’s big purchase in top tech stocks and a major real estate REIT purchase.
– Top performing stocks included ImmunityBio (+40%), Critical Metals (+33%), Beam Therapeutics (+22%), among others.
– Market Fear & Greed index at 62 (greed but not extreme), S&P 500 is trending up but shows some momentum weakening signs.
Email 2:
Subject: China Motor Insurance Faces Strain | Asia Sees Larger 2026 PE Allocations | Japan, China Drive Nuclear Developments
Sender: asianbusinessreview@cmgnewsletter.com
Contents:
– China’s $140 billion motor insurance market faces survival pressures due to a rising 70% loss ratio fueled by new energy vehicle parts and repair costs.
– Asia is increasing private equity allocations in 2026, led by Japan and India.
– Nuclear energy developments are progressing in Japan, China, Indonesia, India, and Vietnam with long-term energy goals.
– APAC insurance gap remains above 80%, with weather exposures high and cyber incidents the top business risk.
– Vietnam mandates 100% reimbursements for near-poor and elderly seniors.
– Digitalization in Asia Pacific power grids is predicted to hit a $19 billion market by 2029.
– Additional sector news includes insurance reforms, risk management, and awards recognizing technological and security advancements.
Email 3:
Subject: Need to Know: Former Star Fidelity Manager Says OpenAI is in Real Trouble
Sender: reports@marketwatchmail.com
Contents:
– George Noble, former Fidelity star manager, warns that OpenAI is “falling apart in real time” due to rising costs, failing projects (like GPT-5), a talent exodus, and a lawsuit.
– Deutsche Bank estimates OpenAI will have $143 billion negative cash flow before profitability.
– The AI hype is peaking with diminishing returns and strong competition. OpenAI must reach $200 billion annual revenue by 2030 (15x growth) to meet projections.
– Noble recommends trimming AI infrastructure investments in top tech (Magnificent 7) due to overvaluation.
– Smart money is moving into small and mid-caps with more reasonable valuations.
– Geopolitical risks, including $108 billion counter-tariffs from Europe against the US, threaten Big Tech dominance.
– Noble has previously advocated gold as an inflation hedge over bonds and warns of uncertainty in trade policy affecting tech stocks.
Email 4:
Subject: Axios Pro Rata: Hot Dog Deals
Sender: dan@axios.com
Contents:
– Panama Canal ports sale by BlackRock could be at risk due to Panama Supreme Court ruling against CK Hutchison for possibly violating contracts, putting the deal on hold or at risk.
– President Trump may re-insert himself in the Panama Canal dispute demanding concessions.
– The BlackRock $22.8 billion deal includes more than 40 ports globally, possibly affected by the Canal decision.
– Smithfield Foods agreed to buy Nathan’s Famous hot dog brand for $450 million, a nostalgic and strategic food industry move.
– Berkshire Hathaway may sell its Kraft Heinz stake causing share price drops.
– Multiple venture capital deals highlighted including AI, healthcare, energy, and cybersecurity startups raising hundreds of millions.
– Various mergers and acquisitions, IPO filings, fundraising, and personnel moves across industries including technology, biotech, and energy.
– Focus on long-term capital needed for infrastructure, AI, and energy projects.
Email 5:
Subject: LinkedIn Knows the 💪 Power of a SaaS P&Ls
Sender: ben@thesaascfo.com
Contents:
– Discussion on the importance of constructing a proper SaaS P&L (Profit & Loss) statement customized for recurring revenue business models.
– Many SaaS companies use incorrect or generic accounting P&Ls hiding true margins and departmental costs.
– SaaS-specific P&L includes distinct revenue categories, COGS including Tech Support, Customer Success, DevOps, and accurately defined OpEx.
– The newsletter offers a downloadable SaaS P&L format and has a live session focused on preparing finance teams for AI integration.
– Mentions Lovable’s $200M ARR growth strategy focusing on product-led, credit-powered monetization and enterprise readiness.
– Discusses SaaS gross margin benchmarks (70-80% is good), and the importance of correct classification in COGS to avoid inflated margins.
– Introduces an AI-powered financial monitoring tool called A.EG.I.S. designed to monitor SaaS financial health and provide warnings/opportunities.
– Upcoming SaaS-focused webinars and educational resources to optimize SaaS financial operations and ARR calculations.
In summary:
– Email 1 highlights the rapid small-cap rally, AI’s efficient players, the labor market stall, and political tensions influencing markets.
– Email 2 covers key Asian economic sectors including strained motor insurance in China, increased PE allocations, nuclear energy developments, and cyber risks.
– Email 3 warns of OpenAI’s challenges and advises portfolio caution in overvalued AI infrastructure plays, emphasizing geopolitical risks on Big Tech.
– Email 4 details significant M&A and investment news including the Panama Canal ports’ legal uncertainties and major food industry deals along with VC funding rounds.
– Email 5 educates on SaaS-specific financial reporting best practices, tools, and strategies critical for managing recurring revenue businesses effectively in an AI-forward future.
Stay Well!
