Dec 16, 2025

Email 1 Summary:

– Focuses on the recent U.S.-ASEAN Maritime Exercise and its geopolitical significance for Southeast Asia.

– Highlights evolving U.S. defense policy in the region amid growing strategic challenges like China’s activities near U.S. military facilities.

– Covers related regional developments such as airstrike condemnations, Kremlin summit dynamics, new rare earth export bans, and developments in fighter jet deliveries.

– Includes insights on critical minerals supply risks in Southeast Asia and the declassification of historical Singapore-Malaysia separation documents.

– Emphasizes the importance of subscription for full detailed analysis and future U.S. defense policy tracking.

Email 2 Summary:

– Warns that the AI boom in the stock market is expected to turn to bust by 2026.

– Discusses high valuations of tech stocks and the unsustainable investment levels in AI assets compared to previous bubbles.

– Describes how slowing AI adoption and high depreciation of AI infrastructure will impact profits and trigger a market correction.

– Projects significant drops in indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, alongside rising unemployment and deteriorating credit conditions.

– Recommends a trade strategy of shorting Nasdaq 100 ETFs and going long on long-term Treasury bonds as the best approach for 2026.

Email 3 Summary:

– Notes a resurgence of IPOs from “boring” companies such as Wealthfront, Lumexa, and Cardinal Infrastructure, indicating potential strength in the 2026 IPO market beyond high-profile deals like SpaceX.

– Reports Dragoneer’s successful $4.3 billion venture capital fund raise, emphasizing its concentrated investment approach and notable portfolio companies including OpenAI.

– Lists multiple venture capital, private equity deals, acquisitions, and more IPOs scheduled, showing active dealmaking despite broader market uncertainty.

– Highlights iRobot’s bankruptcy and acquisition after failed Amazon deal amid regulatory challenges.

– Provides updates on personnel moves, fundraising efforts, and major M&A transactions.

Email 4 Summary:

– Discusses the dilemma regulators face in restricting risky financial products to retail investors while respecting their freedom to invest.

– Explores regulatory approaches like mandatory disclosure, certification, and financial literacy training on complex products such as leveraged ETFs in various markets including South Korea.

– Addresses insider trading regulations and the blurred lines with prediction markets where insiders might gain disproportionate advantage.

– Covers vesting and recruiting trends in AI companies like OpenAI, showing efforts to attract top talent with looser equity vesting policies.

– Reports on hedge fund AQR’s reduced transparency and shift towards more idiosyncratic, harder-to-copy strategies.

– Provides insights into recruiting trends and some notable news items including iRobot bankruptcy and broader industry commentary on investing culture.

Stay Well!