Apr 18, 2025

As a financial expert, I recently read about the volatility in the markets, with the VIX volatility index closing above 30 for the 10th consecutive session, reminiscent of the turmoil in 2022. One strategist, Michael Kantrowitz, suggests that President Trump’s reaction function may change when the VIX surpasses his approval rating, indicating a potential shift in policy. Kantrowitz also predicts a drop in S&P 500 earnings estimates based on stock performance leading earnings by two to three months.

Furthermore, the markets were reacting to uncertainty and risk driven by policy headlines. The S&P 500 had a 2.2% slide, but U.S. stock futures were heading higher, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 3 basis points. Notable developments included progress in U.S.-Japanese trade talks, upcoming data releases, and a positive earnings report from Eli Lilly.

In another news, OpenAI is in talks to acquire coding assistant company Windsurf for over $3 billion, potentially signaling an AI apps land grab. This deal could have implications for antitrust regulators and competition in the tech industry. Additionally, Global Payments agreed to acquire payment processor Worldpay for $24.25 billion, marking a significant move in the fintech sector.

Overall, the news highlighted the ongoing volatility in the markets, potential shifts in policy based on market indicators, and significant acquisitions and deals in the tech and finance sectors. This information provides valuable insights for investors and analysts navigating the current economic landscape.

Today, I learned that the stock market experienced a significant increase in trading volume due to positive economic data. This surge in activity was driven by strong corporate earnings reports and optimism surrounding potential trade agreements. Investors were also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions and their impact on interest rates.

Stay Well!