Jan 27, 2026

Subject: Davos 2026 ASEAN Lens and Prabowo Indonesia Geoeconomic Push

From: aseanwonk@substack.com

Greetings to new readers and welcome to this weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! This edition focuses on:

– Geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of Davos 2026 developments for Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

– Regional updates including Ream naval base warship dock and emerging flashpoints.

– Evolving trends like the first AI governance framework from Southeast Asia, rare earth updates, and port expansions.

– Industry developments including energy patrols and megaproject schedules.

Highlights include Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto’s geoeconomic pitch at Davos, positioning Southeast Asia in global discussions despite complex optics of regional participation. Thailand raised concerns about the growing regional scam crisis reflecting criminal networks penetrating state authorities.

Also noted: Vietnam’s active high-level delegation engagement at Davos, launching of AI governance framework, and advisory groups accelerating investment scaling in Asia. The newsletter details data points to watch, regional stakeholders, and future outlooks available to subscribing members.

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Subject: Need to Know: These are the trades to make as Big Tech earnings loom, says strategists

From: reports@marketwatchmail.com

The Big Tech earnings season is about to start, with Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple reporting soon, accounting for 16.5% of the S&P 500 market cap. Investor sentiment is cautious, particularly around AI-related stocks, and valuations in tech are at low premium levels compared to the broader market.

Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel recommends using option strategies like bullish risk reversals to play Microsoft, Meta, and Apple ahead of earnings. This involves selling downside put options and buying upside call options to reduce costs while maintaining bullish exposure.

Sector concerns focus on software underperformance amid fears AI could replace services, but Emanuel argues current prices may have over-discounted risks. He is a buyer of hyperscalers and high short interest tech stocks like Qualcomm and Fortinet.

Key market indicators:

– S&P 500 trading modestly lower around 6915.

– Gold prices surged past $5,000 an ounce, a record level.

– Treasury yields and oil prices have mixed movements.

Economic data on durable goods orders and Federal Reserve’s rate decision are upcoming. MarketWatch highlights top active tickers and provides insights on evolving market conditions.

Subject: 👑 Axios Pro Rata: California’s crowns

From: dan@axios.com

Despite criticism from venture capitalists about California’s high taxes and fiscal policies, California startups dominated U.S. venture capital in 2025, raising 62% of all U.S. VC dollars, led by AI giants. The state accounted for 31.5% of VC deals, surpassing New York (13.3%) and Massachusetts and Texas (both below 6%).

In related news, the U.S. government plans a $1.6 billion equity stake investment in USA Rare Earths, an Oklahoma-based rare earth minerals company, as part of efforts to reduce dependency on China’s supply chains. The deal includes loans and CHIPS Act funding, alongside private equity PIPE led by venture sponsor Inflection Point.

Recent venture capital deals include:

– Ricursive Intelligence ($300m AI lab fundraise at $4b valuation)

– Upwind Security ($250m cloud security at $1.5b valuation)

– Synthesia ($200m Series E in AI video generation valued at $4b)

Private equity and public offerings updates include significant SPAC raises, new IPO filings (York Space, Bob’s Discount Furniture), and notable M&A activity. Personnel moves and fundraising rounds reflect ongoing investment momentum.

Gold prices topped $5,000 and silver near $1,100 amid geopolitical tensions. This edition offers wide-ranging data and insights into VC, PE, and M&A landscapes.

Subject: Money Stuff: Private Credit Marks Will Matters

From: noreply@news.bloomberg.com

BlackRock TCP Capital, a publicly traded private debt fund, announced writedowns reducing its NAV by 19% due to troubled investments (especially e-commerce aggregators and a bankrupt home improvement firm). The fund’s stock price dropped about 15%, reflecting investors’ prior awareness of weaker asset values.

This scenario highlights challenges in private credit valuations:

– Traditional private credit is buy-and-hold; valuation marks are less critical.

– Publicly traded vehicles like BDCs require accurate and timely NAVs since shares trade continuously.

– Increasing efforts to offer private credit products with greater liquidity to retail investors raise demands for precise marks to avoid bank-run dynamics (where investors redeem at inflated NAVs).

Additional topics include:

– “Debanking”: banks face reputational risks for serving clients suspected of serious crimes, highlighting regulatory roles.

– The recent JPMorgan lawsuit by Donald Trump alleging politicized account closures, though the contract allows banks to close accounts for any reason.

– Hycroft Mining’s stock surge (+425%) due to rising gold and silver prices despite no recent mining operations, positioning it as a “massive in-ground ETF.”

– Legal questions over whether Magic: The Gathering cards could be considered securities, referencing a shareholder lawsuit against Hasbro alleging overproduction that diluted card values and hurt brand equity.

– Market commentary on bond market risks, private equity deals, and emerging investment themes.

This edition combines market analysis, regulatory commentary, and sector-specific deep dives.

Stay Well!