Finance Knuggets

Jan 21, 2026

Email 1:

Subject: Are you really disclosing the correct ARR number?

Summary: Ben from The SaaS CFO newsletter discusses the ongoing importance of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in tech companies. ARR disclosures are becoming more common among public tech firms, but definitions vary widely due to hybrid pricing models combining subscription, consumption, and usage-based revenues. Ben analyzed 200+ companies to craft a CFO’s guide and ARR Disclosure Checklist emphasizing the need for clear definitions to avoid ambiguity with Boards and investors. The newsletter includes sponsored content about Maxio’s secure AI layer for financial data, a CFO dashboard on ARR metrics, and upcoming events on AI readiness, expense control, and ARR disclosures.


Email 2:

Subject: Need to Know: The biggest Greenland worry is trouble for tech, says Morgan Stanley’s

Summary: The US-EU dispute over Greenland could negatively impact Big Tech stocks, according to Morgan Stanley’s strategist Mike Wilson. While direct tariff costs appear manageable, activation of the EU’s “anti-coercion” instrument focused on digital services could hurt US mega caps. There are concerns this could escalate a trade war affecting sectors like autos and healthcare. Small caps remain favored despite a possibly more restrictive global trade environment. The email also covers market responses, major earnings previews, and political risks tied to tariff threats and geopolitical tensions.


Email 3:

Subject: The Economic Legacy of DOGEs

Summary: This economic report reviews the fallout from the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), a one-year experiment led by Elon Musk aiming to drastically cut federal workforce and government size. Although resulting in the largest peacetime federal workforce cut (down 277k jobs, ~9%), it failed to reduce overall federal spending or deficits. The cuts caused localized recessions, especially in DC and nearby states, and severely hurt several government agencies, notably the IRS and Veterans Health Administration. Continued unemployment remains high for former federal workers. The report calls attention to long-term adverse effects on federal services and the labor market.


Email 4:

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: Netflix and cashs

Summary: Axios provides a deep dive into several tech and financial developments. Highlights include SOLV Energy’s IPO filing emphasizing data centers’ role in future electricity demand growth despite political resistance to solar energy, and Netflix switching its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition bid to an all-cash offer amid a bidding war with Paramount. The newsletter covers multiple VC and private equity funding rounds in AI, battery storage, legal-tech, and other sectors; notable IPO filings and mergers; and personnel changes in venture capital and private equity firms. It also includes a sponsor message on patient capital for infrastructure and technology.


Email 5:

Subject: Money Stuff: Memecoin Venture Capitals

Summary: A detailed explanatory article about the evolution of crypto tokens as new financing methods. Tokens fall into four categories: debt-like (stablecoins), equity-like (profit-sharing), utility tokens (crowdfunding/use), and memecoins with no economic rights. The piece focuses on memecoins which function as speculative assets with no promised returns but can generate significant fees when linked to popular projects. An example is the $GAS token tied to Steve Yegge’s AI project Gas Town, generating substantial unexpected royalties despite no direct utility or investment agreement. The article also discusses advancements in stock trading infrastructure enabling real-time settlement and the social-media strategies in tech venture capital, plus commentary on GLP-1 drugs’ impact on work behaviors.


Email 6:

Subject: Is the Market Underpricing the Risk of Fed Hikes?

Summary: Matthew C. Klein analyzes the apparent disconnect between market pricing of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and recent economic data. While futures prices suggest near zero probability of Fed rate increases in 2026 or 2027 and a high chance of cuts, economic indicators like strong employment rates, stable labor force participation, and steady wage growth argue against rate cuts. The report highlights net immigration declines due to aggressive policies impacting job growth and inflation risks if rates drop. The labor market remains robust with prime-age employment near historic highs. The article is a preview of a more detailed subscriber-only analysis.

Stay Well!

summy
summy