Dec 20, 2025

Subject: Southeast Asia in 2026: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics Outlooks

Sender: aseanwonk@substack.com

Dear Readers,

ASEAN Wonk launches its 2026 “FuturePoints,” assessing five critical geopolitical and geoeconomic developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Key highlights include:

1. Next Upgrade Phase Beyond US-China “G2 Flux”
2. Southeast Asia powers adjust beyond US-China dealmaking flux.
3. China and Australia lead the 2026 ASEAN stocktaking of comprehensive strategic partnerships (CSPs).
4. Engagement dynamics to watch include China’s science, technology, innovation focus and Australia’s education and development assistance efforts.

5. EU and India also prepare to elevate or consolidate regional ties in 2026–2027.

6. Triple Mainland Transitions in Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam

7. Myanmar’s multi-phased election beginning Dec 28, followed by further phases in early 2026.
8. Thailand’s general election on Feb 8, with regional conflict implications amid border tensions with Cambodia.
9. Vietnam’s communist party congress mid-Jan with key appointments.

10. Political transitions in Cambodia and Laos also critical, with elections slated in 2027-28 and domestic governance changes.

11. Geoeconomic Rebalance Test

12. 2026 will test if geoeconomic rebalancing rhetoric translates into action beyond symbolic firsts.
13. Export diversification remains a challenge, e.g., Vietnam’s heavy export dependence on the US and China.
14. Broader policy and economic trends will dictate true rebalancing progress.

To access the full detailed report and deeper data, consider subscribing to ASEAN Wonk for $5/month or $50/year.

Thank you for your support!

ASEAN Wonk Team

Subject: U.S. Wages Still Rising Briskly, Employment Holding Up, and Inflation Still Sticky (Probably)

Sender: matthewcklein@substack.com

The American labor market continues robust wage growth, with workers’ wages rising about 4% annually since early 2023, compared to approx. 3% pre-pandemic. This higher nominal wage growth explains why inflation remains roughly 1 percentage point higher than before the pandemic.

Recent data, albeit partially distorted by the government shutdown (Oct 1 – Nov 12), show little change in this trend. The healthy job market lessens the urgency to loosen monetary policy despite inflation persistence.

Monetary policy easing might be warranted if the job market deteriorates or if the neutral interest rate falls due to factors like demographic changes from immigration shifts. Meanwhile, productivity enhancements from investments in data centers and AI could offset risks from slower population growth.

The government shutdown disrupted data collection, delaying and affecting labor statistics — a factor to consider when interpreting recent economic indicators.

Subscribe to The Overshoot for full analysis and subscriber discussions.

Subject: Need to Know: A fading momentum trade is normal in December, says Nomura’s analyst

Sender: reports@marketwatchmail.com

Stocks linked to AI and other momentum plays, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom, have slightly retreated after a strong 2025 run. Some investors worry this signals a broader negative shift for AI stocks going into 2026.

Nomura’s strategist Charlie McElligott explains this pullback is typical year-end profit-taking and seasonal rotation rather than a fundamental reversal. December historically sees momentum factor rewinds as investors rebalance and prepare for the “January Effect,” where prior laggard stocks rally.

Option market activity during recent equity sell-offs shows dealers selling downside protection on major AI-related stocks, implying limited expected further declines — a positive sign from an inflection perspective.

Meanwhile, key market events such as Japan’s interest rate hike (to highest in 30 years) and U.S. economic data releases continue shaping broad market sentiment.

Stay informed for investment decisions by following market trends and strategies.

Subject: Axios Pro Rata: Banner years for M&A; major deals and tech funding updates

Sender: dan@axios.com

2025 marked a blockbuster year in global M&A with about $4.39 trillion in deal value, second only to 2021, despite a volumetric deal decline. U.S. M&A rose similarly with $2.23 trillion value yet fewer deals.

Highlights:

– Matt Holt’s planned $30 billion AI health platform acquisition from New Mountain Capital portfolio.

– TikTok’s US divestiture deal finalized with Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX parties owning 45%.

– Sony’s purchase increased Peanuts Holdings stake to 80%, valued at $458 million.

– Numerous venture capital rounds in AI, biotech, digital insurance, and space tech, e.g., OpenAI raising $100B at $830B valuation, signaling robust funding environments.

– Significant private equity acquisitions and IPOs, including KKR’s stake buy in haircare Wella and several SPAC IPOs.

Deal-making trends, tech funding, and strategic acquisitions underpin a dynamic landscape heading into 2026.

Subscribe to Axios Pro Deals for deeper coverage.

Subject: Money Stuff: The Podcast: Good Games

Sender: noreply@news.bloomberg.com

This week’s Money Stuff podcast episode covers topics including:

– Certainty in merger agreements

– Revocable trusts and personal guarantees

– Doing deals over holidays

– Double-pledging and amortization of subprime auto loans

– Cooperation agreements and Enron as a historical case

– Nuclear fusion developments

– Access to significant capital and insights on leveraged ETFs

The podcast will be on hiatus next week and return in 2026. Listen and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite platform. Feedback welcomed via moneypod@bloomberg.net.

Stay tuned for timely financial insights and dealmaking trends.

Stay Well!