Dec 10, 2025

Email 1:

Subject: Need to Know: Why these AI-themed stocks will prove the naysayers wrong.

Summary:

Alpine Macro’s Henry Wu argues that despite current worries about record capital expenditure, leverage, AI chip depreciation, and a shift in tech leadership, the AI investment story remains “intact.” The firm sees increased investment spending in 2025-26 but expects it to decline as a share of revenue by 2027. AI-related companies are generally underleveraged, and private credit/debt markets provide funding in addition to equity. Wu recommends investing in “picks-and-shovel” AI stocks, notably in lithography, memory, logic fabrication, and chip design companies. His AI basket includes Alphabet (Google), SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, Nvidia, ASML, TSMC, Huawei, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, and ChangXin Memory Technologies. Additionally, he sees AI banking-related deal activity picking up and suggests investors consider relative value trades between AI stocks and bonds, exemplified by Meta being cheap relative to its debt and Oracle being the opposite.

Key Takeaways:

– AI-themed stocks face risks but are structurally strong.

– Capital expenditures are rising but part of a long-term tech investment trend.

– Leverage levels are contained; private credit markets are “underexposed” to AI.

– Legacy fears like chip depreciation are overstated; productivity gains dominate.

– Investing in AI ecosystem bottlenecks (chips, memory, design) can generate value.

– AI banking activity and related deals are a promising theme.

– Relative stock vs. bond valuation differences among tech firms offer trading opportunities.

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Email 2:

Subject: ✈️ Axios Pro Rata: Davos in the skys

Summary:

Bond, a luxury fractional jet ownership startup, has raised $44 million from ultra-wealthy investors including billionaires and private equity/hedge fund managers. Unlike traditional fractional jet companies, Bond focuses on offering newer, larger planes and premium service emphasizing exclusivity — capping membership to keep the experience ultra-lux. The minimum investment is substantial ($500,000+ and flying hour commitments), with KKR as a major institutional backer. First flights are expected in 2027, and Bond holds options to increase its substantial $1.7 billion+ order book to possibly $4 billion. Additionally, several notable private tech and green energy companies recently raised large funding rounds including Unconventional AI ($475M seed at a $4.5B valuation), Skild AI (potential $1B Series C), Saviynt ($700M Series B), and Boom Supersonic ($300M). The newsletter also highlights big private equity deals, IPO filings, acquisitions, and management moves across sectors.

Key Takeaways:

– Bond jet club aims to redefine luxury fractional ownership with exclusivity.

– Large funding rounds continue in AI, green tech, fintech, and health tech.

– Notable VC investors include a16z, Lightspeed, Sequoia, Bezos, KKR.

– IPO activity includes Medline Industries, Andersen Group, EquipmentShare.

– Active private equity and acquisition landscape with deals across industries.

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Email 3:

Subject: Money Stuff: Private Indices Are the New Public Indices

Summary:

The line between public and private companies is blurring as many large private firms act like public companies with frequent equity trades and high valuations (e.g. SpaceX at $800B). MSCI launched a global benchmark combining public equities and private equity funds, allocating 15% to private equity to serve investor demand for a total equity benchmark. Another theme is the “narrow banking” trend: banks retreat from direct lending risks, shifting consumer credit via partnerships with fintech and private credit funds financing products like buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). Consequently, bank credit data is less reflective of total consumer lending. Also discussed is OpenAI’s recent focus on boosting engagement over advancing superintelligence, signaling possible commercial limits to AI intelligence enhancements. Finally, the piece covers securities fraud lawsuits risks around big media mergers like Netflix’s acquisition of Warner Bros., new SEC guidance allowing companies to require arbitration thereby limiting shareholder suits (exemplified by Zion Oil & Gas), and ongoing financial industry developments.

Key Takeaways:

– Private markets increasingly mimic public markets; institutional investors want combined indices.

– Banks are moving away from direct consumer lending; private credit firms fill the gap.

– BNPL lending growth mostly backed by private credit, not banks.

– OpenAI has prioritized user engagement which could cap model intelligence commercially.

– Securities fraud claims around media mergers may increase amid complicated deal dynamics.

– New SEC policies could reduce shareholder class actions via mandated arbitration mechanisms.

Stay Well!